The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility

The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility It is frequently assumed by the general public and alsoby some population experts that the value ofreplacement-level fertility is everywhere an averageof 2.1 lifetime births per woman. Nothing could befurther from the truth. The global variation inreplacement fertility is substantial, ranging by almost1.4 live births from less than 2.1 to nearly 3.5. Thisrange is due almost entirely to cross-country differencesin mortality, concentrated in the less developed world.Policy makers need to be sensitive to own-countryreplacement rates. Failure to do so could result infertility levels that are below replacement and lead tolong-run population decline. For example, the currentreplacement total fertility rate for the East Africa regionis 2.94. Lowering fertility to 2.10 would, under currentmortality conditions, result in a regional birthrate 29 percentbelow replacement. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Population Research and Policy Review Springer Journals

The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Geography; Demography; Economic Policy; Population Economics
ISSN
0167-5923
eISSN
1573-7829
D.O.I.
10.1023/B:POPU.0000020882.29684.8e
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

It is frequently assumed by the general public and alsoby some population experts that the value ofreplacement-level fertility is everywhere an averageof 2.1 lifetime births per woman. Nothing could befurther from the truth. The global variation inreplacement fertility is substantial, ranging by almost1.4 live births from less than 2.1 to nearly 3.5. Thisrange is due almost entirely to cross-country differencesin mortality, concentrated in the less developed world.Policy makers need to be sensitive to own-countryreplacement rates. Failure to do so could result infertility levels that are below replacement and lead tolong-run population decline. For example, the currentreplacement total fertility rate for the East Africa regionis 2.94. Lowering fertility to 2.10 would, under currentmortality conditions, result in a regional birthrate 29 percentbelow replacement.

Journal

Population Research and Policy ReviewSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 17, 2004

References

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