The Role of Volatility in Forecasting

The Role of Volatility in Forecasting Theories of underinvestment propose a link between cash flow volatility and investment and subsequent cash flow and earnings levels. Consistent with these theories, our results indicate that forecasting models that include volatility as an explanatory variable have greater accuracy and lower bias than forecasting models that exclude volatility. The improvement in forecast accuracy and bias is greatest when the firm is most likely to experience underinvestment. The profitable implementation of a trading strategy based on these findings, however, suggests that equity market participants do not incorporate fully the information in historical volatility when forecasting future firm performance. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Accounting Studies Springer Journals

The Role of Volatility in Forecasting

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Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Business and Management; Accounting/Auditing; Corporate Finance; Public Finance
ISSN
1380-6653
eISSN
1573-7136
D.O.I.
10.1023/A:1020226118973
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Theories of underinvestment propose a link between cash flow volatility and investment and subsequent cash flow and earnings levels. Consistent with these theories, our results indicate that forecasting models that include volatility as an explanatory variable have greater accuracy and lower bias than forecasting models that exclude volatility. The improvement in forecast accuracy and bias is greatest when the firm is most likely to experience underinvestment. The profitable implementation of a trading strategy based on these findings, however, suggests that equity market participants do not incorporate fully the information in historical volatility when forecasting future firm performance.

Journal

Review of Accounting StudiesSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 21, 2004

References

  • Income Smoothing by Economy Sector
    Albrecht, W. D.; Richardson, F. M.

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