The Longest March: Why China’s Democratization is Not Imminent

The Longest March: Why China’s Democratization is Not Imminent Will China democratize? If so, how soon? Relying on classical modernization theory and observations of China’s extraordinary economic growth, many prominent scholars have recently predicted that China is destined for a “short march” to democracy over the next decade. This article problematizes such predictions. I replicate the prominent forecast model used by Henry Rowen and show that even such classical modernization models of democratic transitions actually do not predict democracy in China before 2030–35 at the earliest. I also survey major reasons to think that China’s march to democracy will be a very long march, not a short one. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Chinese Political Science Springer Journals

The Longest March: Why China’s Democratization is Not Imminent

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by Journal of Chinese Political Science/Association of Chinese Political Studies
Subject
Political Science and International Relations; Political Science
ISSN
1080-6954
eISSN
1874-6357
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11366-017-9474-y
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Will China democratize? If so, how soon? Relying on classical modernization theory and observations of China’s extraordinary economic growth, many prominent scholars have recently predicted that China is destined for a “short march” to democracy over the next decade. This article problematizes such predictions. I replicate the prominent forecast model used by Henry Rowen and show that even such classical modernization models of democratic transitions actually do not predict democracy in China before 2030–35 at the earliest. I also survey major reasons to think that China’s march to democracy will be a very long march, not a short one.

Journal

Journal of Chinese Political ScienceSpringer Journals

Published: Apr 9, 2017

References

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