The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification

The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification We examine the evolution of mortgage modification terms obtained by distressed subprime borrowers during the recent housing crisis and the effect of the various types of modifications on the subsequent loan performance. Using the CoreLogic Loan Performance dataset that contains detailed loan level information on mortgages, modification terms, second liens, and home values, we estimate a discrete time proportional hazard model with competing risks to examine the determinants of post-modification mortgage outcomes. We find that principal reductions are particularly effective at improving loan outcomes, as high loan-to-value ratios are the single greatest contributor to re-default and foreclosure. However, any modification that reduces total payment and interest (P&I) reduces the likelihood of subsequent re-default and foreclosure. Modifications that increase the loan principal—primarily through capitalized interest and fees—are more likely to fail, even while controlling for changes in P&I. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Springer Journals

The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 by Springer Science+Business Media New York (outside the USA)
Subject
Economics; Regional/Spatial Science; Financial Services
ISSN
0895-5638
eISSN
1573-045X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11146-015-9500-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We examine the evolution of mortgage modification terms obtained by distressed subprime borrowers during the recent housing crisis and the effect of the various types of modifications on the subsequent loan performance. Using the CoreLogic Loan Performance dataset that contains detailed loan level information on mortgages, modification terms, second liens, and home values, we estimate a discrete time proportional hazard model with competing risks to examine the determinants of post-modification mortgage outcomes. We find that principal reductions are particularly effective at improving loan outcomes, as high loan-to-value ratios are the single greatest contributor to re-default and foreclosure. However, any modification that reduces total payment and interest (P&I) reduces the likelihood of subsequent re-default and foreclosure. Modifications that increase the loan principal—primarily through capitalized interest and fees—are more likely to fail, even while controlling for changes in P&I.

Journal

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Feb 24, 2015

References

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