Earth Sci Inform (2017) 10:303–320
Temporal analysis of croatian seismogenic zones to improve
earthquake magnitude prediction
· S. Scitovski
· R. Scitovski
· F. Mart
Received: 11 September 2016 / Accepted: 24 January 2017 / Published online: 9 February 2017
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017
Abstract The prediction of earthquakes is a task of utmost
difficulty that has been addressed in many different ways.
However, an initial definition of the area of interest is
needed, with adequate catalogs. In this work, different
seismogenic zones proposals in the Republic of Croatia
are studied, in terms of predictability. Such zones have
been characterized with widely used seismicity parameters.
Later, studies based on training and test sets properties as
well as the quality of the data involved are carried out. The
studies presented in this work analyze the prediction perfor-
mance across the earthquake magnitude time series of the
target seismogenic zones. Results show that specific pre-
diction techniques could be used in some zones to improve
earthquake magnitude prediction.
Communicated by: H. A. Babaie
Department of Computer Science, Pablo de Olavide
University of Seville, Seville, Spain
Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Osijek,
Department of Mathematics, University of Osijek,
Keywords Seismogenic zoning · Earthquake prediction ·
Earthquake prediction has been addressed from many dif-
ferent points of views, including the contribution of math-
ematical proofs and empirical support for each hypothesis
(Matsuzawa et al. 2002; Reyes et al. 2013;Chenetal.
2016). However, not all so-called predictions are so, since
earthquake predictions must simultaneously provide the fol-
lowing information: the specific location, the specific span
of time, the specific magnitude range and the specific
probability of occurrence (Allen 1982).
The seismicity of Croatia, which is characterized by
earthquakes of medium-large magnitude spread all over the
country, is studied in this work. To fulfil the criteria in
(Allen 1982), a specific zone must be selected. Zones with
seismic activity are usually identified by means of seismo-
genic zoning. Seismogenic zones have traditionally been
defined from the spatial distribution of seismic epicenters
and shallow geological structures. This procedure is based
on the available seismic database, which, unfortunately, may
cause that various seismogenic zones can be proposed for
the same area.
The first Croatian consistent seismogenic zoning can be
found in (Marku
sic and Herak 1999) (17 zones). Later, in
sic 2008), the authors only defined two main zones.
Akkar and Glavatovic (2010) defined five regional struc-
tural units: Adriatic microplate, Adriatic, Dinaric, Supradi-
naric and Pannonian basin, in an attempt of refining the two
In 2014, a zoning for Croatia based on a unsuper-
vised learning method was proposed (Morales-Esteban et al.