Stock Price Distributions and News: Evidence from Index Options

Stock Price Distributions and News: Evidence from Index Options We estimate the shape of the distribution of stock prices using data from options on the underlying asset, and test whether this distribution is distorted in a systematic manner each time a particular news event occurs. In particular we look at the response of the FTSE100 index to market wide announcements of key macroeconomic indicators and policy variables. We show that the whole distribution of stock prices can be distorted on an event day. The shift in distributional shape happens whether the event is characterized as an announcement occurrence or as a measured surprise. We find that larger surprises have proportionately greater impact, and that higher moments are more sensitive to events however characterised. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

Stock Price Distributions and News: Evidence from Index Options

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Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
ISSN
0924-865X
eISSN
1573-7179
D.O.I.
10.1023/B:REQU.0000042343.64831.32
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We estimate the shape of the distribution of stock prices using data from options on the underlying asset, and test whether this distribution is distorted in a systematic manner each time a particular news event occurs. In particular we look at the response of the FTSE100 index to market wide announcements of key macroeconomic indicators and policy variables. We show that the whole distribution of stock prices can be distorted on an event day. The shift in distributional shape happens whether the event is characterized as an announcement occurrence or as a measured surprise. We find that larger surprises have proportionately greater impact, and that higher moments are more sensitive to events however characterised.

Journal

Review of Quantitative Finance and AccountingSpringer Journals

Published: Dec 29, 2004

References

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