Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the Ukraine and Black Sea

Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the... The data array accumulated for the period 1946–1995 is used to select the most significant predictor of monthly anomalies of precipitation in the region of the Ukraine and Black Sea, namely, a large-scale circulation in a sector covering the North Atlantic and Europe. Three large-scale predictors (geopotential at a level of 500 GPa, sea-level pressure, and the difference between the geopotentials at levels of 500 and 1000 GPa) give almost identical results: their correlation with anomalies of precipitation is equal to 0.7–0.8 in winter and 0.4–0.5 in summer. The predominant mechanism of the influence of circulation on precipitations at low frequencies is the response of the trajectories of European cyclones to changes in the upper-tropospheric jet currents in the Atlantic-European sector described as the superposition of the North-Atlantic oscillation and the Eurasian mode. The decomposition of the fields of precipitations and circulation in the eigenmodes of the canonical correlation analysis opens a possibility of direct computation of the monthly average fields of precipitations for the entire territory of the Ukraine and Black Sea region according to the large-scale geopotential fields. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Physical Oceanography Springer Journals

Statistical Modeling of Monthly Anomalies of Atmospheric Precipitations for the Region of the Ukraine and Black Sea

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Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 by Plenum Publishing Corporation
Subject
Earth Sciences; Oceanography; Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change; Environmental Physics
ISSN
0928-5105
eISSN
0928-5105
D.O.I.
10.1023/A:1014620630223
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The data array accumulated for the period 1946–1995 is used to select the most significant predictor of monthly anomalies of precipitation in the region of the Ukraine and Black Sea, namely, a large-scale circulation in a sector covering the North Atlantic and Europe. Three large-scale predictors (geopotential at a level of 500 GPa, sea-level pressure, and the difference between the geopotentials at levels of 500 and 1000 GPa) give almost identical results: their correlation with anomalies of precipitation is equal to 0.7–0.8 in winter and 0.4–0.5 in summer. The predominant mechanism of the influence of circulation on precipitations at low frequencies is the response of the trajectories of European cyclones to changes in the upper-tropospheric jet currents in the Atlantic-European sector described as the superposition of the North-Atlantic oscillation and the Eurasian mode. The decomposition of the fields of precipitations and circulation in the eigenmodes of the canonical correlation analysis opens a possibility of direct computation of the monthly average fields of precipitations for the entire territory of the Ukraine and Black Sea region according to the large-scale geopotential fields.

Journal

Physical OceanographySpringer Journals

Published: Oct 21, 2004

References

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