Spatial Correlation in Expected Returns in Commercial Real Estate Markets and the Role of Core Markets

Spatial Correlation in Expected Returns in Commercial Real Estate Markets and the Role of Core... This study is based on survey data on investor expectations for 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US over the period from 2003:Q2 to 2014:Q2. The paper has two main objectives. These are firstly to identify whether expected rates of return across different commercial real estate markets are positively spatially correlated and secondly to analyze the role of core markets like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago in the information-spreading process. All the tests conducted are conditional on the maintained hypothesis that expected returns across different markets are spatially uncorrelated. To carry out these tests, we regress a measure of excess return in each of the 40 markets on (contemporaneous) measures of expected returns in other markets, controlling for the interaction between (neighboring) markets. We find very large spatial interaction coefficients across different markets. Our basic estimates yield a spatial correlation coefficient of near one and statistically significant at standard levels. Chow tests allow rejection of the hypothesis that core markets like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago are no different than markets like Cleveland, Columbus, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City, St. Louis, and Tampa in explaining the covariances of the rates of return among different commercial real estate markets. Tests of structural change also imply that core markets currently play a more prominent role that in the past in the transfer of information from one market to another. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Springer Journals

Spatial Correlation in Expected Returns in Commercial Real Estate Markets and the Role of Core Markets

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer_journal/spatial-correlation-in-expected-returns-in-commercial-real-estate-4ZJin6sHjB
Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by Springer Science+Business Media New York
Subject
Economics; Regional/Spatial Science; Financial Services
ISSN
0895-5638
eISSN
1573-045X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11146-016-9581-0
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This study is based on survey data on investor expectations for 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US over the period from 2003:Q2 to 2014:Q2. The paper has two main objectives. These are firstly to identify whether expected rates of return across different commercial real estate markets are positively spatially correlated and secondly to analyze the role of core markets like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago in the information-spreading process. All the tests conducted are conditional on the maintained hypothesis that expected returns across different markets are spatially uncorrelated. To carry out these tests, we regress a measure of excess return in each of the 40 markets on (contemporaneous) measures of expected returns in other markets, controlling for the interaction between (neighboring) markets. We find very large spatial interaction coefficients across different markets. Our basic estimates yield a spatial correlation coefficient of near one and statistically significant at standard levels. Chow tests allow rejection of the hypothesis that core markets like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Chicago are no different than markets like Cleveland, Columbus, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City, St. Louis, and Tampa in explaining the covariances of the rates of return among different commercial real estate markets. Tests of structural change also imply that core markets currently play a more prominent role that in the past in the transfer of information from one market to another.

Journal

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Sep 28, 2016

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches

$49/month

Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.

$588

$360/year

billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial