Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a “highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring” pattern which switches to the “increase in autumn, decrease in spring” pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” paradigm. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Scientific Reports Springer Journals

Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East

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Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by The Author(s)
Subject
Science, Humanities and Social Sciences, multidisciplinary; Science, Humanities and Social Sciences, multidisciplinary; Science, multidisciplinary
eISSN
2045-2322
D.O.I.
10.1038/s41598-018-22795-8
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a “highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring” pattern which switches to the “increase in autumn, decrease in spring” pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” paradigm.

Journal

Scientific ReportsSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 13, 2018

References

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