Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio–economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the cur- rent chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high. Keywords Unprecedented extremes · Climate risks · Silk Road Pattern · China · Hot summers 1 Introduction study we further outline the UNSEEN methodology, and then use it to assess the chance of unprecedented summer It is difficult to assess the current chances of http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climate Dynamics Springer Journals

Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China

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Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by © Crown
Subject
Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Climatology; Oceanography
ISSN
0930-7575
eISSN
1432-0894
D.O.I.
10.1007/s00382-018-4281-5
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio–economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the cur- rent chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high. Keywords Unprecedented extremes · Climate risks · Silk Road Pattern · China · Hot summers 1 Introduction study we further outline the UNSEEN methodology, and then use it to assess the chance of unprecedented summer It is difficult to assess the current chances of

Journal

Climate DynamicsSpringer Journals

Published: Jun 5, 2018

References

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