Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with Application to Tsunamigenic Regions in the Pacific Ocean

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with... The paper presents a new method for empirical assessment of tsunami recurrence parameters, namely the mean tsunami activity rate $$\lambda_{\text{T}}$$ λ T , the Soloviev–Imamura frequency–magnitude power law $$b_{\text{T}}$$ b T -value, and the coastline-characteristic, maximum possible tsunami intensity $$i_{ \text{max} }$$ i max . The three coastline-characteristic recurrence parameters are estimated locally by maximum likelihood techniques using only tsunami event catalogues. The method provides for incompleteness of the tsunami catalogue, uncertainty in the tsunami intensity determination, and uncertainty associated with the parameters in the applied tsunami occurrence models. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty is introduced in the tsunami models by means of the use of mixture distributions. Both the mean tsunami activity rate $$\lambda_{\text{T}}$$ λ T of the Poisson occurrence model, and the $$b_{\text{T}}$$ b T -value of the Soloviev–Imamura frequency–intensity power law are random variables. The proposed procedure was applied to estimate the probabilities of exceedance and return periods for tsunamis in the tsunamigenic regions of Japan, Kuril–Kamchatka, and South America. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Pure and Applied Geophysics Springer Journals

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment from Incomplete and Uncertain Historical Catalogues with Application to Tsunamigenic Regions in the Pacific Ocean

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer_journal/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard-assessment-from-incomplete-and-uncertain-631xgnqtgg
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by Springer International Publishing
Subject
Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy
ISSN
0033-4553
eISSN
1420-9136
D.O.I.
10.1007/s00024-017-1564-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The paper presents a new method for empirical assessment of tsunami recurrence parameters, namely the mean tsunami activity rate $$\lambda_{\text{T}}$$ λ T , the Soloviev–Imamura frequency–magnitude power law $$b_{\text{T}}$$ b T -value, and the coastline-characteristic, maximum possible tsunami intensity $$i_{ \text{max} }$$ i max . The three coastline-characteristic recurrence parameters are estimated locally by maximum likelihood techniques using only tsunami event catalogues. The method provides for incompleteness of the tsunami catalogue, uncertainty in the tsunami intensity determination, and uncertainty associated with the parameters in the applied tsunami occurrence models. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty is introduced in the tsunami models by means of the use of mixture distributions. Both the mean tsunami activity rate $$\lambda_{\text{T}}$$ λ T of the Poisson occurrence model, and the $$b_{\text{T}}$$ b T -value of the Soloviev–Imamura frequency–intensity power law are random variables. The proposed procedure was applied to estimate the probabilities of exceedance and return periods for tsunamis in the tsunamigenic regions of Japan, Kuril–Kamchatka, and South America.

Journal

Pure and Applied GeophysicsSpringer Journals

Published: May 22, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off