Price discovery in the CDS market: the informational role of equity short interest

Price discovery in the CDS market: the informational role of equity short interest This paper documents a negative relation between equity short interest and future returns on credit default swaps (CDS). This relation is most consistent with the theory that equity short interest telegraphs relevant information to secondary market CDS investors about credit spread not transmitted into prices in other ways. The CDS return predictive pattern also strengthens negatively for equity short-interest positions subject to an outward shift in the demand for shortable stocks, which we view as a proxy for the expected benefits of private information (Cohen et al. in J Finance 62(5):2061–2096, 2007). This suggests that features of the shorting market may help explain the lagged response of CDS spreads to equity short interest. Our tests of economic significance, however, do not support the view that the CDS return predictive pattern is strong enough to cover the round-trip cost of trading in the secondary CDS market. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Accounting Studies Springer Journals

Price discovery in the CDS market: the informational role of equity short interest

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Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 by Springer Science+Business Media New York
Subject
Business and Management; Accounting/Auditing; Corporate Finance; Public Finance
ISSN
1380-6653
eISSN
1573-7136
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11142-016-9364-0
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper documents a negative relation between equity short interest and future returns on credit default swaps (CDS). This relation is most consistent with the theory that equity short interest telegraphs relevant information to secondary market CDS investors about credit spread not transmitted into prices in other ways. The CDS return predictive pattern also strengthens negatively for equity short-interest positions subject to an outward shift in the demand for shortable stocks, which we view as a proxy for the expected benefits of private information (Cohen et al. in J Finance 62(5):2061–2096, 2007). This suggests that features of the shorting market may help explain the lagged response of CDS spreads to equity short interest. Our tests of economic significance, however, do not support the view that the CDS return predictive pattern is strong enough to cover the round-trip cost of trading in the secondary CDS market.

Journal

Review of Accounting StudiesSpringer Journals

Published: Jun 22, 2016

References

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