Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (~ 2070) under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya, Northern Ethiopia

Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (~ 2070) under the representative... There are very few scientific studies on the predictions of future drought hazard and its effects on economic, social, and environmental under the existing global climate change scenarios. This study, aims to predict the future meteorological drought hazard (2016–2070) under the representative concentration path 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya and its environs, Northern Ethiopia. The study also investigates the onset, end set, duration, magnitude, intensity, frequency, severity and spatial coverage of future drought occurrences. Monthly tropical applications of meteorology using satellite data and ground–based observations and daily AgMERRA daily climatic data were used from 19 meteorological stations. A robust interpolation technique called Inverse distance weighted was also applied to assess the spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall. Then, the temporal seasonal rainfall variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. A standardized precipitation index at 3 months time scale was applied to measure the precipitation deficit and characterize drought properties. The results reveal an increasing and worsening drought event in the future than the last three decades. Hence, the study area will be stricken for about 30–39 times with mild to extreme droughts. The rate of drought recurrence will also be once in every 1.8–2.3 years. The duration (1–5 years) of drought will be similar in all districts, but the magnitude and intensity will vary due to the level of precipitation deficit. It is, therefore, recommended that policy or decision makers and smallholder farmers should improve the existing water management and agricultural practices to cope up with the climate extremes and boost agricultural productivity. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Modeling Earth Systems and Environment Springer Journals

Predictions of future meteorological drought hazard (~ 2070) under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya, Northern Ethiopia

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer_journal/predictions-of-future-meteorological-drought-hazard-2070-under-the-dOP7ftWOZi
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Ecosystems; Environment, general
ISSN
2363-6203
eISSN
2363-6211
D.O.I.
10.1007/s40808-018-0453-x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

There are very few scientific studies on the predictions of future drought hazard and its effects on economic, social, and environmental under the existing global climate change scenarios. This study, aims to predict the future meteorological drought hazard (2016–2070) under the representative concentration path 4.5 climate change scenarios in Raya and its environs, Northern Ethiopia. The study also investigates the onset, end set, duration, magnitude, intensity, frequency, severity and spatial coverage of future drought occurrences. Monthly tropical applications of meteorology using satellite data and ground–based observations and daily AgMERRA daily climatic data were used from 19 meteorological stations. A robust interpolation technique called Inverse distance weighted was also applied to assess the spatial–temporal distribution of rainfall. Then, the temporal seasonal rainfall variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation. A standardized precipitation index at 3 months time scale was applied to measure the precipitation deficit and characterize drought properties. The results reveal an increasing and worsening drought event in the future than the last three decades. Hence, the study area will be stricken for about 30–39 times with mild to extreme droughts. The rate of drought recurrence will also be once in every 1.8–2.3 years. The duration (1–5 years) of drought will be similar in all districts, but the magnitude and intensity will vary due to the level of precipitation deficit. It is, therefore, recommended that policy or decision makers and smallholder farmers should improve the existing water management and agricultural practices to cope up with the climate extremes and boost agricultural productivity.

Journal

Modeling Earth Systems and EnvironmentSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 29, 2018

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off