Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes

Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Physical Oceanography Springer Journals

Prediction of natural processes by the method of adaptive balance of causes

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 by Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.
Subject
Earth Sciences; Oceanography; Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change; Environmental Physics
ISSN
0928-5105
eISSN
0928-5105
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11110-005-0011-8
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application.

Journal

Physical OceanographySpringer Journals

Published: Mar 15, 2005

References

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