& Key message Composite logistic regression models simulating the potential effect of global climate change on forests dynamics in the southern Iberian Peninsula identify Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) as the chief beneficiaries of the anticipated environmental shifts, whereas other oak species and conifers suffer a decline. & Context The ten most important tree species (five oaks and five conifers) in Southern Spain were selected for the study. The study area, corresponding to the region of Andalusia, is located in an interesting position between Central European and North African climates. The territory also exhibits the most extreme patterns of rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. & Aims This study aims to model the potential distribution of the ten species in response to climate change, in several time periods, including the present and two future twenty-first century dates. & Methods The potential distributions within the different scenarios were simulated using logistic regression techniques based on a set of 19 climate variables from the WorldClim 1.4 project. The scenarios were drawn from the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 in the CCSM4 Global Circulation Model. The resolution of the output maps was 30 arc-seconds. &
Annals of Forest Science – Springer Journals
Published: Feb 21, 2018
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