Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South... The influence of climate change on wildfires has been studied at a global scale, but uncertainties on the influence at regional and hyper-regional level still exist. As the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) midlands rely heavily on agro-forestry and tourism to support the local economy, changes in fire dynamics need to be taken into consideration. This study aims to investigate fire dynamics under different climatic scenarios for the KZN midlands, South Africa. Using 25 years of meteorological data allows for the stochastic generation of long-term meteorological data. Six climatic scenarios, describing a warmer and wetter climate and a warmer and drier climate, are used to adjust the generated data. The Lowveld fire danger index is applied to the adjusted data and analysed. Results indicat that annual average fire danger in the KZN midlands is likely to increase significantly under all climate scenarios. Annual average fire danger under baseline conditions (no climate adjustment) averages at roughly 25. When adjusted for the worst case scenario, the annual average fire danger increases to an average of roughly 28—a statistically significant difference. Increased air temperatures are shown to influence fire danger significantly. The KZN midlands are likely to experience an increased frequency of high fire danger days. Changes in daily rainfall are shown to significantly influence the onset and length of the KZN midlands’ fire season. Overall, the study indicates that the KZN midlands are likely to experience different fire dynamics under a changed climate, with significant implications for local landowners and local governments. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Loading next page...
Springer Netherlands
Copyright © 2017 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site


You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.

DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches


Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.



billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial