De Economist (2017) 165:271–294
Potential Economic Effects of TTIP for the Netherlands
Published online: 27 March 2017
© Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017
Abstract The transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) is a comprehen-
sive preferential trade agreement that is expected to signiﬁcantly increase EU–US
bilateral trade and investments. Negotiations are ongoing, so we use a scenario anal-
ysis to estimate the potential effects of TTIP under likely negotiated outcomes. In
our main scenario, we assume a ﬁnal trade deal where current tariffs are eliminated
and non-tariff barriers are signiﬁcantly reduced. We simulate the potential economic
effects of TTIP using a CGE model. We ﬁnd that US-Dutch bilateral trade doubles
and this is translated into a positive but moderate effect on Dutch income of 1.7%.
Keywords TTIP · Preferential trade agreements · CGE models
JEL Classiﬁcation F13 · F17 · C68
The transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) is currently being negotiated
between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US).
This deep integration
Negotiations started in June 2013 and are currently in an uncertain state, given the political conditions
in the US and EU at the moment. However, trade agreements are known to be complex processes that
usually take between 5 to 10 years to negotiate.
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10645-017-9293-8)
contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30,
2594 AV The Hague, The Netherlands