Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second- percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined. . . . . Keywords Debris flow Rainfall intensity and duration Missed alarm False alarm Probability Introduction Sichuan, China (Guo et al. 2016). Such data can be used to empirically determine a duration-intensity threshold for debris flow initiation for forecasting and early warning: when the Debris flow is a phenomenon
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment – Springer Journals
Published: Jun 4, 2018
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