Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting

Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow... Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second- percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined. . . . . Keywords Debris flow Rainfall intensity and duration Missed alarm False alarm Probability Introduction Sichuan, China (Guo et al. 2016). Such data can be used to empirically determine a duration-intensity threshold for debris flow initiation for forecasting and early warning: when the Debris flow is a phenomenon http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Springer Journals

Optimization approach for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting

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Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Earth Sciences; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Geoengineering, Foundations, Hydraulics; Geoecology/Natural Processes; Nature Conservation
ISSN
1435-9529
eISSN
1435-9537
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10064-018-1314-6
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Debris flow is a natural hazard typically triggered by heavy rainfall. Previous research aimed at forecasting the occurrence of debris flows have led to the development of several rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for different areas using the second- percentile method that allows a missed-alarm probability of up to 2%, while disregarding the occurrence of false alarms. The current study aims to develop rainfall duration-intensity thresholds for debris flow forecasting taking into account both missed alarms and false alarms. Specifically, the new optimization approach seeks to determine the optimal duration-intensity threshold associated with the lowest missed- and false-alarm probabilities combined. In addition to the methodology, a case study is presented to show that the new optimization approach is feasible for determining rainfall duration-intensity thresholds in debris flow forecasting, and is more efficient than the method currently in use, which is associated with a higher probability of missed and false alarms combined. . . . . Keywords Debris flow Rainfall intensity and duration Missed alarm False alarm Probability Introduction Sichuan, China (Guo et al. 2016). Such data can be used to empirically determine a duration-intensity threshold for debris flow initiation for forecasting and early warning: when the Debris flow is a phenomenon

Journal

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the EnvironmentSpringer Journals

Published: Jun 4, 2018

References

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