Physical Oceanography, Vol. 18, No. 4, 2008
ON THE FORMATION OF ATMOSPHERIC SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
IN THE BLACK SEA REGION
V. V. Efimov and E. S. Shakalova
The climatic features of the formation of precipitation and their correlation with the baric situa-
tion in the Atlantic–European sector are studied on the basis of the data of the Sevastopol and
Feodosiya coastal hydrometeorological stations. As the source data, we use the data arrays of
daily precipitation at these stations in 1900–2005 and the data of reanalysis of the fields of atmo-
spheric pressure in the Atlantic–European sector. The comparative statistical analysis of daily
precipitation for the wet and dry summer and winter seasons and the estimates of extremely high
levels of precipitation for the specified periods of repeatability are presented. The existence of
the dependence of occurrence of wet and dry winter seasons in Sevastopol and Feodosiya on the
large-scale baric fields in the Atlantic–European sector is confirmed.
To study the possibility of climatic changes under the influence of anthropogenic factors in the current cen-
tury, it is necessary to perform the detailed analysis of the current climatic conditions on the regional scales. The
conditions of precipitation prove to be one of the problems in this field studied especially poorly. This is clearly
explained by a small and insufficient amount of the available data of long-term observations and the strong space
and time variability of the processes of precipitation. There are numerous methods used for the prediction of
local meteorological processes on the basis of the analysis of large-scale fields (the so-called downscaling meth-
ods) and including both quantitative and less precise practical approaches. The statistical methods used for the
analysis of the monthly anomalies of atmospheric precipitation in the region of Ukraine and Black Sea are stu-
died in . Thus, by using the canonical correlation analysis, it was shown that the main mechanism of influ-
ence on the formation of precipitations in the Black-Sea region is connected with the response of the path of Eu-
ropean cyclones to changes in the large-scale atmospheric fields in the Atlantic–European sector traditionally de-
scribed as the superposition of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Eurasian Mode. Note that the
mechanism connecting the alternation of typical climatic conditions in Europe with the positive and negative
phases of the NAO is described in numerous works (see, e.g., [2, 3]). The analysis of this mechanism led to a
certain (recently achieved) progress in the prediction of seasonal anomalies, e.g., of the abnormally warm first
half of winter 2005–2006 .
In the present work, the data of the Black-Sea hydrometeorological stations located in Sevastopol and Feo-
dosiya are used to study the climatic features of the formation of precipitations and their correlation with the
large-scale pressure fields in the Atlantic–European sector.
As the source data, we use the data arrays of daily precipitation in Sevastopol for 1906–2005 and in Feodo-
siya for 1900–2002, as well as the data on the pressure fields reduced to the sea level (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
grid, and a time period of
h) . The data of instru-
mental observations of precipitation have gaps or years with incomplete information: 1927, 1938, and 1942–
1944 for Sevastopol and 1941–1944 for Feodosiya. These periods were excluded from our analysis.
First, we consider the general climatic characteristics of precipitation averaged over the entire period of ob-
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Ukraine.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No.
43–51, July–August, 2008. Original article submitted April 2, 2007; re-
vision submitted April 12, 2007.
204 0928-5105/08/1804–0204 © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.