Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics Springer Journals

Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

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Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 by The Author(s)
Subject
Economics; Regional/Spatial Science; Financial Services
ISSN
0895-5638
eISSN
1573-045X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11146-008-9145-z
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.

Journal

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Sep 18, 2008

References

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