Nat Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3375-z ORIGINAL PAPER Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast 1 2 1 • • • Andre B. Fortunato Edmund P. Meredith Marta Rodrigues 1 3 Paula Freire Hendrik Feldmann Received: 2 January 2018 / Accepted: 23 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Decadal predictions bridge the gap between the short-term weather/seasonal forecasts and the long-term climate projections. They target the reproduction of large-scale weather patterns at multi-year time scales by both recognizing the long memory of some components of the climate system, and explicitly including the evolution of greenhouse gas concentrations as an external forcing. This study illustrates the use of decadal predictions to determine the near-future storminess at regional scales. Speciﬁcally, the evolution of extreme storm surges and sea levels along the Atlantic Iberian coast is assessed. Present (1980–2016) and near-future (2021–2024) storm surges are simulated over the northeast Atlantic, forced by atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim) and decadal predictions (MiKlip), respectively. Results are then statistically analyzed to investigate the short-term effects of climate change and climate variability on extreme surges and extreme sea levels. Surges will increase mostly in early winter, while tides are largest in late
Natural Hazards – Springer Journals
Published: May 29, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera