Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast

Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast Nat Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3375-z ORIGINAL PAPER Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast 1 2 1 • • • Andre B. Fortunato Edmund P. Meredith Marta Rodrigues 1 3 Paula Freire Hendrik Feldmann Received: 2 January 2018 / Accepted: 23 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Decadal predictions bridge the gap between the short-term weather/seasonal forecasts and the long-term climate projections. They target the reproduction of large-scale weather patterns at multi-year time scales by both recognizing the long memory of some components of the climate system, and explicitly including the evolution of greenhouse gas concentrations as an external forcing. This study illustrates the use of decadal predictions to determine the near-future storminess at regional scales. Specifically, the evolution of extreme storm surges and sea levels along the Atlantic Iberian coast is assessed. Present (1980–2016) and near-future (2021–2024) storm surges are simulated over the northeast Atlantic, forced by atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim) and decadal predictions (MiKlip), respectively. Results are then statistically analyzed to investigate the short-term effects of climate change and climate variability on extreme surges and extreme sea levels. Surges will increase mostly in early winter, while tides are largest in late http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Natural Hazards Springer Journals

Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature
Subject
Earth Sciences; Natural Hazards; Hydrogeology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Civil Engineering; Environmental Management
ISSN
0921-030X
eISSN
1573-0840
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11069-018-3375-z
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Nat Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3375-z ORIGINAL PAPER Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast 1 2 1 • • • Andre B. Fortunato Edmund P. Meredith Marta Rodrigues 1 3 Paula Freire Hendrik Feldmann Received: 2 January 2018 / Accepted: 23 May 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Decadal predictions bridge the gap between the short-term weather/seasonal forecasts and the long-term climate projections. They target the reproduction of large-scale weather patterns at multi-year time scales by both recognizing the long memory of some components of the climate system, and explicitly including the evolution of greenhouse gas concentrations as an external forcing. This study illustrates the use of decadal predictions to determine the near-future storminess at regional scales. Specifically, the evolution of extreme storm surges and sea levels along the Atlantic Iberian coast is assessed. Present (1980–2016) and near-future (2021–2024) storm surges are simulated over the northeast Atlantic, forced by atmospheric reanalyses (ERA-Interim) and decadal predictions (MiKlip), respectively. Results are then statistically analyzed to investigate the short-term effects of climate change and climate variability on extreme surges and extreme sea levels. Surges will increase mostly in early winter, while tides are largest in late

Journal

Natural HazardsSpringer Journals

Published: May 29, 2018

References

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