Before taking strategic actions in property investments, consider the type and number of expansion, contraction and suspension alternatives and the future profit volatility. The optimal investment strategy for a current or prospective property owner should reflect the expected variability of future profits (rent times occupancy times units available), and current profits relative to threshold trigger profits for a variety of alternative states and actions. These alternatives include remaining idle, building and operating properties, expanding, contracting, suspending, reverting to normal service or reduced service capacity, or abandoning. A valuation model is developed for up to eight different options, each with a distinct trigger. Then numerical solutions show optimal profit triggers and valuations for each of these real options. Generally, increasing the number of options reduces the investment and abandonment triggers, and increases the values of the investment option and total option values, given these alternatives and parameters. The relevant parameters will depend on the investment context and feasible actions, but generally include interest rates, profit volatility, and irrecoverable costs of investment, expansion, contracting, suspension and abandonment. Generally increases in investment costs reduce the value of upward options, and increases the optimal triggers for exercising those options. Increases in expected profit volatility increase the value of all options, increases investment triggers and decreases abandonment triggers. These generic models may be appropriate for many contexts where the costs of changing states are partially irrecoverable, yet where management has some flexibility to alter scale, quality and pricing of assets and services.
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics – Springer Journals
Published: Feb 23, 2005
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