Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock: evidence for increased transmission during lambing seasons

Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock: evidence for increased transmission during... Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Archives of Virology Springer Journals

Modelling the spread of scrapie in a sheep flock: evidence for increased transmission during lambing seasons

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Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Copyright
Copyright © 2006 by Springer-Verlag/Wien
Subject
Biomedicine; Medical Microbiology; Infectious Diseases; Virology
ISSN
0304-8608
eISSN
1432-8798
D.O.I.
10.1007/s00705-005-0666-y
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Presence of scrapie infectivity in the placenta suggests the possibility of increased transmission of scrapie during the lambing season. This hypothesis was explored here using a mathematical model of scrapie transmission dynamics which has previously been successfully used to study several scrapie outbreaks in Scottish sheep flocks. It was applied here to the Langlade experimental sheep flock (INRA Toulouse, France), in which a natural scrapie epidemic started in 1993. Extensive data were available, including pedigree, scrapie histopathological diagnoses and PrP genotypes. Detailed simulations of the scrapie outbreak reveal that the observed patterns of seasonality in incidence can not be accounted for by seasonality in demography alone and provide strong support for the hypothesis of increased transmission during lambing. Observations from several other scrapie outbreaks also showing seasonal incidence patterns support these conclusions.

Journal

Archives of VirologySpringer Journals

Published: Apr 1, 2006

References

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