Physical Oceanography, Vol.
MATHEMATIC MODELING OF MARINE SYSTEMS
MODELING OF THE SPECIFIC FEATURES OF CLIMATE IN THE
V. S. Barabanov, V. V. Efimov, and M. V. Shokurov
By the method of cluster analysis, we obtain a collection of meteorological fields for six typical
synoptic situations in Eastern Europe for 1982–1996. We study the possibility of evaluation of
the climatic characteristics of the field of precipitations for the Black-Sea region on the basis of a
mesoscale atmospheric model with the use of certain statistically selected typical situations as
In recent years, great attention has been given to the analysis of local specific features of the climate and
their possible variation caused by anthropogenic factors. This is connected with the new possibilities opened by
the development of numerical models of global circulation of the atmosphere and ocean and the creation of data-
bases of archival hydrometeorological information required, in particular, for testing and optimization of the mo-
dels and used to perform various numerical experiments with the help of these models.
At the same time, the spatial resolution even of the most comprehensive models of the “ocean–atmosphere”
system is not better than
which is insufficient for the analysis of the local specific features of the climate
and its long-term variability, especially in regions with pronounced horizontal inhomogeneities of the underlying
At present, two approaches to the problem of modeling of specific regional climatic features have been in-
tensely developed. The semiempirical statistical method is based on the analysis of linear (or, in a more general
case, nonlinear) correlations between large-scale atmospheric fields with low spatial resolution and local hydro-
meteorological parameters. The dynamic method is based on the numerical analysis of atmospheric circulation
with the use of regional numerical models with finer spatial resolution (in particular, modeling on nested grids).
These methods are compared in numerous works and give close results as far as the coefficient of correlation be-
tween model and observed quantities is concerned [1–7]. The procedures of regional modeling based on the
combination of these two approaches are also developed .
At present, mesoscale numerical models are used both for local diagnostics and short-term weather fore-
casting in regions with a well-developed network of meteorological stations and for the prediction of possible re-
gional climatic variations on the basis of known global climatic scenarios. The problem of regional modeling
includes several stages connected with the analysis of the archival meteorological information, development of
special statistical methods, improvement of dynamic models, comparison of the results of numerical calculations
with the experimental data, etc. The present work is devoted to the analysis of some problems connected with
the development of the statistical dynamic approach to the investigation of specific regional climatic characteris-
tics in Eastern Europe. The regional numerical model of atmospheric circulation is used not for the direct evalu-
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal,
20–29, July–August, 2002. Original article submitted February 18, 2001.
0928-5105/02/1204–0191 $27.00 © 2002 Plenum Publishing Corporation 191