Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows

Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows Model uncertainty makes it difficult to draw clear inference about mutual fund performance persistence. I propose a new performance measure, Bayesian model averaged (BMA) alpha, which explicitly accounts for model uncertainty. Using BMA alphas, I find evidence of performance persistence in a large sample of US funds. There is a positive and asymmetric relation between flows and past BMA alphas, suggesting that fund investors respond to the information in BMA alphas. My findings are robust to various sensitivity analyses, including alternative measures of post-ranking performance, flows and total net assets, and alternative econometric model specifications. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows

Loading next page...
Springer US
Copyright © 2010 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site


  • A quartet of semigroups for model specification, robustness, prices of risk, and model detection
    Anderson, EW; Hansen, LP; Thomas, JS
  • Stock return predictability and model uncertainty
    Avramov, D
  • Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable
    Avramov, D; Wermers, R
  • Short-term persistence in mutual fund performance
    Bollen, NPB; Busse, JA
  • Volatility timing in mutual funds: evidence from daily returns
    Busse, JA
  • Bayesian alphas and mutual fund persistence
    Busse, JA; Irvine, PJ

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.

DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches


Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.



billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial