The ensemble spread of seasonal prediction is investigated in this study to understand its role in the predictability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on the results of SINTEX-F2, a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the SINTEX-F2 seasonal prediction system, the first ENSO precursor appears as a cyclonic wind anomaly over the central north Pacific in boreal winter (January). This is followed by warm SST, positive rainfall and cross-equatorial southerly wind anomalies in the northern hemisphere during spring (particularly in April). These anomalies in April are accompanied by westerly wind anomaly in the western equatorial Pacific. Finally, El Niño-like conditions with warm SST and positive rainfall anomalies become dominant in the ensemble standard deviation after boreal summer. The 500 hPa geopotential height suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability excites El Niño-like spread through air-sea interaction. The oceanic response in the form of upper heat content (in the top 150 m) appears to result from the equatorial wind forcing during boreal spring and summer. These model results suggest that air-sea interaction related to the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) is important for ENSO spread and the “spring predictability barrier”. The dependence of ENSO spread on the background ensemble-mean state is also investigated. Keywords
Climate Dynamics – Springer Journals
Published: May 30, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera