Intensive care medicine in 2050: statistical tools for development of prognostic models (why clinicians should not be ignored)

Intensive care medicine in 2050: statistical tools for development of prognostic models (why... Intensive Care Med (2017) 43:1403–1406 DOI 10.1007/s00134-017-4825-x WHAT ’S NE W IN INTENSIVE C ARE Intensive care medicine in 2050: statistical tools for development of prognostic models (why clinicians should not be ignored) 1* 2 2 Daniele Poole , Greta Carrara and Guido Bertolini © 2017 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg and ESICM Predictive ability assessment of prognostic models (Gruppo Italiano per la Valutazione degli interventi in When physicians admit a patient to the intensive care Terapia Intensiva) calibration belt (Fig. 1), which provides unit (ICU), they automatically grade the degree of sever- statistically rigorous information on deviation from the ity and formulate an initial prognosis. This is a com - ideal perfect matching between predicted and observed plex integration process of anamnestic information and death rates [3, 4]. physiological data with data from experience and culture. Traditionally, calibration has been assessed with the This approach, however, does not numerically quantify Hosmer–Lemeshow statistics [5], which, although detecting overall miscalibration, does not indicate the patient’s risk and may be heavily influenced by sub - whether the model predicts more or less deaths than jectivity. Prognostic models, such as the severity scores those observed. The combination with traditional cali of the APACHE and SAPS series, have been developed Intensive Care Medicine Springer Journals

Intensive care medicine in 2050: statistical tools for development of prognostic models (why clinicians should not be ignored)

Loading next page...
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Copyright © 2017 by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg and ESICM
Medicine & Public Health; Intensive / Critical Care Medicine; Anesthesiology; Emergency Medicine; Pneumology/Respiratory System; Pain Medicine; Pediatrics
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site


You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.

DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

Monthly Plan

  • Read unlimited articles
  • Personalized recommendations
  • No expiration
  • Print 20 pages per month
  • 20% off on PDF purchases
  • Organize your research
  • Get updates on your journals and topic searches


Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial

Best Deal — 39% off

Annual Plan

  • All the features of the Professional Plan, but for 39% off!
  • Billed annually
  • No expiration
  • For the normal price of 10 articles elsewhere, you get one full year of unlimited access to articles.



billed annually
Start Free Trial

14-day Free Trial