Physical Oceanography, Vol. 19, No. 4, 2009
INFLUENCE OF PROCESSES IN THE OCEAN–ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM
IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON THE INTRAANNUAL VARIATION
OF CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS ON THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE
E. P. Shkol’nyi and É. N. Serga
We make an attempt to study specific features of weather- and climate-forming processes devel-
oping due to the energy and mass transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere in the North
Atlantic, as well as responses of the climate of Ukraine to the main climate-forming factors.
These studies are based on a statistical model in the form of a system of third-order regression
equations with feedback. We deduce a system of generating functions that allow us to estimate
the regression coefficients. Within the developed model, we applied the factor analysis to com-
press the input information about the affecting factors in the region where the weather ships were
located. This allowed us to reveal the tendencies of variations in the characteristics participating
in the energy and mass transfer. The response of the climate in various regions of Ukraine to the
processes running in the North Atlantic was determined using the cluster analysis whose algo-
rithm was developed by the authors. We performed a number of experiments for various sit-
uations in the region of the North Atlantic that are possible due to the global warming of the
climate and studied the response of climatic characteristics on the territory of Ukraine under sim-
ilar processes. The adequacy of the developed model was verified on the basis of data on the real
situation in February 2006. It is shown that the model satisfactorily describes the responses of
climatic characteristics in regions of Ukraine to variations of the affecting factors in the North
In the end of the 20th century, the studies of Earth’s climate have become of special importance. This is
explained, first of all, by the expected development of the greenhouse effect and the corresponding increase in
the global air temperature. An evidence of a particular interest in the problem of global warming and its conse-
quences, we can mention the adoption of the UNO Frame Convention on climate change in June 1992 (Rio de
Janeiro). It was ratified by Ukraine, which took certain obligations including the enhancement of the efficiency
and intensity of scientific investigations related to the questions of global and regional climate changes and the
estimation of ecological, social, and economic consequences of global warming.
The presence of high interest in problems related to climate changes and their importance are confirmed by
the studies for the last decades within the framework of international scientific projects such as “Cuts,” TOGA,
CLIVAR, etc. These projects considered low-frequency interactions of components of the “ocean–atmosphere”
climatic system, which are of greatest importance from the viewpoint of the formation of global and regional cli-
mates. A significant contribution to the solution of this problem was made by the staff of the Marine Hydro-
physical Institute of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences [1–5].
Processes running in a climatic system induce its natural variability and a response to perturbations of the
type of an increase in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this case, the changes occurring in
Odessa State University, Odessa, Ukraine.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No.
51–66, July–August, 2009. Original article submitted January 16, 2008;
revision submitted May 26, 2008.
240 0928-5105/09/1904–0240 © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.