Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere

Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere,... Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and UT1 for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and UT1, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and UT1, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam. Keywords Earth rotation prediction · Polar motion and length-of-day variations · Effective angular momentum functions · AAM , OAM , HAM 1 Introduction atmosphere, ocean, and the terrestrial hydrosphere. The equatorial EAM components χ , χ excite PM, and the 1 2 Changes of the Earth’s orientation with respect to inertial axial component http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Geodesy Springer Journals

Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere

Improved 90-day Earth orientation predictions from angular momentum forecasts of atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial hydrosphere

Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and UT1 for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and UT1, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and UT1, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam. Keywords Earth rotation prediction · Polar motion and length-of-day variations · Effective angular momentum functions · AAM , OAM , HAM 1 Introduction atmosphere, ocean, and the terrestrial hydrosphere. The equatorial EAM components χ , χ excite PM, and the 1 2 Changes of the Earth’s orientation with respect to inertial axial component χ quantifies UT1. The International space as defined by the position of the rotation axis (polar Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS; motion; PM) and changes in the angular velocity (UT1) https://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/DataProducts/GeophysicalF are caused by external gravitational forces and geodynami- luidsData/geoFluids.html) provides a comprehensive list of cal processes that exchange angular momentum between the publicly available model-based EAM for the atmosphere solid Earth and its fluid envelope. Atmospheric winds and (AAM), ocean (OAM), and terrestrial water (HAM). Many surface...
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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature
Subject
Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Earth Sciences, general
ISSN
0949-7714
eISSN
1432-1394
D.O.I.
10.1007/s00190-018-1158-7
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Short-term forecasts of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological effective angular momentum functions (EAM) of Earth rotation excitation are combined with least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive modeling to routinely predict polar motion (PM) and UT1 for up to 90 days into the future. Based on hindcast experiments covering the years 2016 and 2017, a best performing parametrization was elaborated. At forecast horizons of 10 days, remaining prediction errors are 3.02 and 5.39 mas for PM and UT1, respectively, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 44.7% when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. At forecast horizons of 60 days, prediction errors are 12.52 and 107.96 mas for PM and UT1, corresponding to improvements of 34.5 and 8.2% over Bulletin A. The 90-day-long EAM forecasts leading to those improved EOP predictions are routinely published on a daily basis at isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/esmdata/eam. Keywords Earth rotation prediction · Polar motion and length-of-day variations · Effective angular momentum functions · AAM , OAM , HAM 1 Introduction atmosphere, ocean, and the terrestrial hydrosphere. The equatorial EAM components χ , χ excite PM, and the 1 2 Changes of the Earth’s orientation with respect to inertial axial component

Journal

Journal of GeodesySpringer Journals

Published: May 28, 2018

References

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