Gain, Loss, and Two-State Modeling

Gain, Loss, and Two-State Modeling Gain and loss, calculated from the upside and downside portions of return distributions, play a pivotal role in the two-state model. A two-state economy possesses a universal gain-loss ratio (G/L) for all assets that is related to the ratio of state prices and to the familiar risk-neutral probabilities. This paper derives many asset pricing properties in a two-state context and shows the role of gain and loss. Applied to bonds, for example, risky debt yields depend directly on both G/L and a bond's potential loss. Using S&P 500 data over a 72-year period, the market has priced an Arrow-Debreu security in the gain state at approximately $0.36, while the Arrow-Debreu security in the loss state has been priced at $0.61. Historically, the S&P 500's expected gain is about three times its expected loss. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

Gain, Loss, and Two-State Modeling

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
ISSN
0924-865X
eISSN
1573-7179
D.O.I.
10.1023/A:1013810211622
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Gain and loss, calculated from the upside and downside portions of return distributions, play a pivotal role in the two-state model. A two-state economy possesses a universal gain-loss ratio (G/L) for all assets that is related to the ratio of state prices and to the familiar risk-neutral probabilities. This paper derives many asset pricing properties in a two-state context and shows the role of gain and loss. Applied to bonds, for example, risky debt yields depend directly on both G/L and a bond's potential loss. Using S&P 500 data over a 72-year period, the market has priced an Arrow-Debreu security in the gain state at approximately $0.36, while the Arrow-Debreu security in the loss state has been priced at $0.61. Historically, the S&P 500's expected gain is about three times its expected loss.

Journal

Review of Quantitative Finance and AccountingSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 13, 2004

References

  • Investment Policy, Optimality, and the Mean-Variance Model
    Baron, D. P.

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