In this study, we have modeled and examined future land use management effects on ecosystem services in the Wabe River catchment of the Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia. In addition to the climate-resilient scenario designed to meet the strategic plan of Ethiopia, the business as usual (BAU) and an alternative agroforestry scenario were modeled for the year 2030 to align with the government long-term development plan. Through the statistical and biophysical modeling approach, this study quantiﬁed and mapped the food production, water provision, carbon storage, and sequestration and sediment retention ecosystem services. The land use land cover and the other datasets were obtained from various primary and secondary sources, and prepared according to the models requirement. The future scenarios were modeled through the Land Change Modeler for ArcGIS and InVEST Scenario Generator models. The simulated BAU scenario result revealed that all of the ecosystem services decreased from the baseline status. In contrast, implementation of the climate-resilient strategy could enhance the existing status of ecosystem services. In the agroforestry scenario, all of the quantiﬁed ecosystem services increased even more than the climate-resilient scenario. We conclude that landscape management activities described in the climate-resilient strategy could ensure sustainable production while conserving
Sustainability Science – Springer Journals
Published: Jun 1, 2018
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