Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol. 18, No. 1, January 2006 (
Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99
on Belgian Sex Offenders Committed
to a Forensic Facility
and T. Pham
Published online: 6 April 2006
This study evaluated the convergent and predictive validity of the Sex Offender
Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG;V.L.Quinsey,G.T.Harris,M.E.Rice,&
C. A. Cormier, 1998) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999,
2000) among 147 male sex offenders committed to a high-security hospital in
Belgium (Centre de D
efense Sociale “Les Marronniers”). Of the sample, 63.8%
were child abusers (victims under 14 years of age), 24.6% were rapists (victims
aged 14 years or more), and 11.5% were mixed-victim offenders (victims less than
14 years of age and victims aged 14 years or more). After an average follow-up
period of 4.2 years (SD = 3.4 years), the sexual recidivism rate was 25.2%,
the violent recidivism rate was 17.1%, and the general (any) recidivism rate was
33.1%. The SORAG and the Static-99 were moderately correlated with each other
(r = .55), and both showed strong predictive validity for general and violent
recidivism (ROC AUC’s ranging from .68 to .72 for the total sample). Both instru-
ments showed moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism (AUC of .64 for
SORAG and .66 for Static-99).
KEY WORDS: recidivism risk; SORAG; Static-99; sex offenders.
Since the end of the 1960s, risk assessment has been a major concern in
forensic psychiatry, psychology, and related ﬁelds. Hanson and Bussi
pointed out that, on average, expert opinion was only slightly better than chance
when used to predict sexual recidivism. Their position echoed the earlier work of
Centre de Recherche en D
efense Sociale, Tournai, Belgium.
Centre de Recherche de l’Institut Philippe Pinel, Montr
e de Mons-Hainaut (UMH), Mons, Belgium.
To whom correspondence should be addressed at Centre de Recherche en D
efense Sociale, 94 rue
Despars, 7500 Tournai, Belgium; e-mail: email@example.com.
2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.