Physical Oceanography, Vol.
5, January, 2012 (Ukrainian Original No.
5, September–October, 2011)
MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF MARINE SYSTEMS
ESTIMATION OF THE SPACE DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE PARAMETERS OF MARINE
ECOSYSTEMS BY THE METHOD OF ADAPTIVE BALANCE OF CAUSES
I. E. Timchenko,
I. K. Ivashchenko, E. M. Igumnova, and I. P. Lazarchuk
We propose a method for the construction of the maps of parameters of marine ecosystems based on the
adaptation of the space profiles computed by using a model of ecosystem to the data of observations
along the trajectories of satellites. To get the adaptive estimates of the fields, we use the differential
equations of the method of adaptive balance of causes in which the rates of changes in the parameters
are replaced by their spatial derivatives. The method is used for the evaluation of the space distributions
of the concentrations of oxygen, phyto- and zooplankton, and other hydrobionts (bioresources) accord-
ing to the satellite data on the fields of surface temperature and the concentration of chlorophyll in the
northwest part of the Black Sea. It is possible to conclude that the proposed approach is quite promising
for processing the data of satellite observations.
Keywords: АВС-method, northwest part of the Black Sea.
The process of stable development of the coastal zone of the sea includes the creation of advanced informa-
tion technologies of monitoring of the state of marine bioresources and control over their consumption. The sys-
tems approach to this problem is based on the rational use of all available information for the prediction of pos-
sible scenarios of development of the processes running in coastal marine ecosystems by means of the assimila-
tion of the data of observations in the dynamical models . As one of promising methods aimed at the solution
of the problem, we can mention the application of the known cause-effect relations between the processes run-
ning in marine ecosystems discovered in the course of scientific investigations and corrected by data of observa-
tions. These observations were used as basic for the construction of the method of adaptive balance of causes
(АВС-method) , which was applied in a series of works for the construction of the integral models of the
processes running in marine ecosystems and ecological-economic systems of the coastal zone of the sea .
The principle of adaptive balance of causes used in the АВС-method guarantees the possibility of continu-
ous adaptation of time scenarios of the processes running in marine ecosystems connected with each other by the
cause-effect relations and, hence, correlation dependences. The observed and unobservable (computed by the
model) space distributions of the parameters of the ecosystem are also connected with each other by special cor-
relation functions. Hence, the АВС-models must be equally applicable to the time processes of evolution in ma-
rine ecosystems observed at some points of the fields and to their spatial realizations. Thus, in particular, if we
have a map of the sea-surface temperature, then it is possible to take into account the influence of the distribu-
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Ukraine.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No.
50–65, September–October, 2011. Original article submitted May 7, 2010;
revision submitted May 31, 2010.
338 0928–5105/12/2105–0338 © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.