Estimating the upper limit of prehistoric peak ground acceleration using an in situ, intact and vulnerable stalagmite from Plavecká priepast cave (Detrekői-zsomboly), Little Carpathians, Slovakia—first results

Estimating the upper limit of prehistoric peak ground acceleration using an in situ, intact and... Earthquakes hit urban centres in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. The new observations can provide information of maximum intensity (or magnitude) for long timescale as an input data for PSHA studies as well. Long-term information can be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred over thousands of years, depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their ‘survival’ requires that the horizontal ground acceleration (HGA) has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here, we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Little Carpathians of Slovakia. A specially shaped, intact and vulnerable stalagmite in the Plavecká priepast cave was examined in 2013. This stalagmite is suitable for estimating the upper limit of horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by prehistoric earthquakes. The critical HGA values as a function of time going back into the past determined from the stalagmite that we investigated are presented. For example, at the time of Jókő event (1906), the critical HGA value cannot have been higher than 1 and 1.3 m/s2 at the time of the assumed Carnuntum event (∼340 AD), and 3000 years ago, it must have been lower than 1.7 m/s2. We claimed that the effect of Jókő earthquake (1906) on the location of the Plavecká priepast cave is consistent with the critical HGA value provided by the stalagmite we investigated. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Seismology Springer Journals

Estimating the upper limit of prehistoric peak ground acceleration using an in situ, intact and vulnerable stalagmite from Plavecká priepast cave (Detrekői-zsomboly), Little Carpathians, Slovakia—first results

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by The Author(s)
Subject
Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Structural Geology; Hydrogeology; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
ISSN
1383-4649
eISSN
1573-157X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10950-017-9655-3
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Earthquakes hit urban centres in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. The new observations can provide information of maximum intensity (or magnitude) for long timescale as an input data for PSHA studies as well. Long-term information can be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred over thousands of years, depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their ‘survival’ requires that the horizontal ground acceleration (HGA) has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here, we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Little Carpathians of Slovakia. A specially shaped, intact and vulnerable stalagmite in the Plavecká priepast cave was examined in 2013. This stalagmite is suitable for estimating the upper limit of horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by prehistoric earthquakes. The critical HGA values as a function of time going back into the past determined from the stalagmite that we investigated are presented. For example, at the time of Jókő event (1906), the critical HGA value cannot have been higher than 1 and 1.3 m/s2 at the time of the assumed Carnuntum event (∼340 AD), and 3000 years ago, it must have been lower than 1.7 m/s2. We claimed that the effect of Jókő earthquake (1906) on the location of the Plavecká priepast cave is consistent with the critical HGA value provided by the stalagmite we investigated.

Journal

Journal of SeismologySpringer Journals

Published: Mar 25, 2017

References

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