Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand

Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand This study provides a flexible and mathematically precise method for forecasting tourism demand from all five continents of the globe to Taiwan and with potential to assist tourism operators and government officials in improving their management planning and strategy. This investigation applied the Grey Envelop Prediction Model (GEPM) to predict international passenger arrivals to Taiwan. The analysis result shows monthly, seasonal and annual predictions. The prediction values of international tourist numbers can answer the practical needs of managers, owners, and government departments and help in operational and management strategy development. The contributions of this study is provides an effective method for forecasting number of international visitors, and the result provided the flexible, accurate, and efficient interval predicted values used by researchers, mangers and administrators for developing manpower, finance, marketing, and administrative decision-making schemes. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Quality & Quantity Springer Journals

Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Subject
Social Sciences; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Social Sciences, general
ISSN
0033-5177
eISSN
1573-7845
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11135-010-9317-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This study provides a flexible and mathematically precise method for forecasting tourism demand from all five continents of the globe to Taiwan and with potential to assist tourism operators and government officials in improving their management planning and strategy. This investigation applied the Grey Envelop Prediction Model (GEPM) to predict international passenger arrivals to Taiwan. The analysis result shows monthly, seasonal and annual predictions. The prediction values of international tourist numbers can answer the practical needs of managers, owners, and government departments and help in operational and management strategy development. The contributions of this study is provides an effective method for forecasting number of international visitors, and the result provided the flexible, accurate, and efficient interval predicted values used by researchers, mangers and administrators for developing manpower, finance, marketing, and administrative decision-making schemes.

Journal

Quality & QuantitySpringer Journals

Published: Apr 3, 2010

References

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