Criteria for selecting a suitable method for producing post-2000 county population estimates: A case study of population estimates in Illinois

Criteria for selecting a suitable method for producing post-2000 county population estimates: A... We compared 2000 county population estimates for Illinois against 2000 census counts. Administrative records (ADREC) and ratio correlation (Ratio-CORR) methods were used to produce two sets of controlled county estimates for 2000; a third set represented an average of the estimates reached using these methods. Another set using the ADREC method was not controlled to any estimate. Also, the 2000 estimates were adjusted for undercount in the 1990 census. We compared performance of these methods with the performance of two naive models: (i) do nothing and (ii) constant growth rate. ADREC estimates were more accurate than estimates from the Ratio-CORR or Average method in terms of Mean Absolute Percent (MAPE) or weighted MAPE. Undercount adjustment in general improved the accuracy of the estimates for all three methods. A top-down or bottom-up approach worked equally well. As a single method, ADREC performed best. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Population Research and Policy Review Springer Journals

Criteria for selecting a suitable method for producing post-2000 county population estimates: A case study of population estimates in Illinois

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Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 by Springer
Subject
Geography; Demography; Economic Policy; Population Economics
ISSN
0167-5923
eISSN
1573-7829
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11113-004-5313-x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We compared 2000 county population estimates for Illinois against 2000 census counts. Administrative records (ADREC) and ratio correlation (Ratio-CORR) methods were used to produce two sets of controlled county estimates for 2000; a third set represented an average of the estimates reached using these methods. Another set using the ADREC method was not controlled to any estimate. Also, the 2000 estimates were adjusted for undercount in the 1990 census. We compared performance of these methods with the performance of two naive models: (i) do nothing and (ii) constant growth rate. ADREC estimates were more accurate than estimates from the Ratio-CORR or Average method in terms of Mean Absolute Percent (MAPE) or weighted MAPE. Undercount adjustment in general improved the accuracy of the estimates for all three methods. A top-down or bottom-up approach worked equally well. As a single method, ADREC performed best.

Journal

Population Research and Policy ReviewSpringer Journals

Published: Dec 31, 2004

References

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