Environ Resource Econ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0261-9 Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity 1 1 Elnaz Roshan · Mohammad M. Khabbazan · Hermann Held Accepted: 27 May 2018 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Solar geoengineering (SGE) constitutes a viable option to ameliorate anthro- pogenic temperature rise. However, it does not simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we investigate to what extent a proponent of the 2 °C-temperature target would apply SGE in conjunction with mitigation in view of regional disparities in temperature and precipitation. We apply cost-risk anal- ysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades-off expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in ‘Giorgi’-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mix of SGE and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity and generalize CRA in order to include regional temperature and precipitation risks. In addition to a mitigation-only analysis, social welfare is maximized for the following three joint-mitigation-SGE scenarios: temperature- risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. We ﬁnd that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SGE will be
Environmental and Resource Economics – Springer Journals
Published: Jun 6, 2018
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