Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity

Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities... Environ Resource Econ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0261-9 Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity 1 1 Elnaz Roshan · Mohammad M. Khabbazan · Hermann Held Accepted: 27 May 2018 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Solar geoengineering (SGE) constitutes a viable option to ameliorate anthro- pogenic temperature rise. However, it does not simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we investigate to what extent a proponent of the 2 °C-temperature target would apply SGE in conjunction with mitigation in view of regional disparities in temperature and precipitation. We apply cost-risk anal- ysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades-off expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in ‘Giorgi’-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mix of SGE and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity and generalize CRA in order to include regional temperature and precipitation risks. In addition to a mitigation-only analysis, social welfare is maximized for the following three joint-mitigation-SGE scenarios: temperature- risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SGE will be http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Environmental and Resource Economics Springer Journals

Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature
Subject
Economics; Environmental Economics; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Political Economy/Economic Policy; Economics, general; Environmental Management
ISSN
0924-6460
eISSN
1573-1502
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10640-018-0261-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Environ Resource Econ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0261-9 Cost-Risk Trade-Off of Mitigation and Solar Geoengineering: Considering Regional Disparities Under Probabilistic Climate Sensitivity 1 1 Elnaz Roshan · Mohammad M. Khabbazan · Hermann Held Accepted: 27 May 2018 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Solar geoengineering (SGE) constitutes a viable option to ameliorate anthro- pogenic temperature rise. However, it does not simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we investigate to what extent a proponent of the 2 °C-temperature target would apply SGE in conjunction with mitigation in view of regional disparities in temperature and precipitation. We apply cost-risk anal- ysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades-off expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in ‘Giorgi’-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mix of SGE and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity and generalize CRA in order to include regional temperature and precipitation risks. In addition to a mitigation-only analysis, social welfare is maximized for the following three joint-mitigation-SGE scenarios: temperature- risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SGE will be

Journal

Environmental and Resource EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Jun 6, 2018

References

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