Population Research and Policy Review 17: 329–350, 1998.
1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
Contraceptive determinants in three leading countries
SUSAN H. JAYNE
& DAVID K. GUILKEY
Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relative importance of access to family
planning and the motivation to restrict fertility in determining contraceptive use in three coun-
tries that have led the fertility transitions in their regions: Colombia, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe.
A structural equations model is estimated where endogenous fertility intentions are allowed to
affect contraceptive method use. Simulation methods are then used to quantify the size of the
impact of intentions and access on method choice for the three countries. The results demon-
strate that even after controlling for fertility intentions, family planning program variables still
have important effects in all three countries.
Key words: Contraception, Fertility preferences, Colombia, Tunisia, Zimbabwe
The purpose of the research reported here was to explore the relative impor-
tance of access to family planning and the motivation to restrict fertility in
determining contraceptive use in three countries that have led the fertility
transitions in their regions: Colombia, Tunisia and Zimbabwe. To do this, a
recursive, structural model was used whereby the determinants of the moti-
vation to restrict fertility are ﬁrst analyzed and then the determinants of
contraceptive use, including motivation, are examined. Since women who
were sterilized were not asked questions about their fertility preferences, a
reduced form contraceptive method choice equation was also estimated so
that the effect of access on women who had been sterilized in the ﬁve years
preceding the survey could be examined.
In the ﬁrst section of the paper, a brief comparative history of the socioe-
conomic and demographic evolutions of the countries will be presented. The
second section presents the basic model used in all three countries. The
next section presents the signs and signiﬁcance of the variables tested in the
The fourth section presents simulations of the magnitudeof the effect
of various policies on contraceptive use. The ﬁnal section presents the policy