P1: GCP/GVG/GMX/GMF/GFQ P2: GVG
Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment [saj] pp325-sebu-363772 March 6, 2002 9:58 Style ﬁle version Nov. 19th, 1999
Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol. 14, No. 2, April 2002 (
Constructing and Testing a Framework
for Dynamic Risk Assessment
This paper describes the construction and testing of a framework for dynamic risk
assessment. A review of previous studies identiﬁed 4 domains into which dynamic
risk factors for sexual offending seem to fall. These were sexual interests, distorted
attitudes, socioaffective functioning, and self-management. Psychometric indica-
tors for 3 of the domains were identiﬁed, and 2 studies are reported using these
indicators to test the framework. Study 1 divided men serving a prison sentence
for a sexual offense against a child into 2 groups—those with a previous convic-
tion of this kind (Repeaters) and those for whom this was the only time they had
been sentenced for such an offense (Current Only). The Repeaters were found to
show more distorted attitudes, worse socioaffective functioning, and poorer self-
management than did the Current Only group. Study 2 used a simple algorithm to
combine these psychometric indicators into an overall “Deviance” classiﬁcation.
Reconviction data was obtained for offenders classiﬁed as high, moderate, or low
on Deviance. Sexual reconviction was found to be monotonically associated with
the Deviance classiﬁcation. Logistic regression analysis showed that both static
variables (Static-99) and the Deviance classiﬁcation made independent contribu-
tions to prediction. It is suggested that risk assessment procedures should combine
these 2 approaches.
KEY WORDS: sex offending; risk assessment; dynamic risk factors.
Structured Risk Assessment (SRA) is a process for evaluating the risk pre-
sented by sex offenders. The full scheme covers Static Assessment based on un-
changeable, statistical risk factors, Initial Deviance Assessment (IDA) based on
potentially changeable but relatively stable psychological risk factors, Evaluation
Offending Behaviour Programs Unit, Her Majesty’s Prison Service, Room 701, Abel House, John
Islip Street, London SW1P 4LH, England.
To whom correspondence should be addressed at Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center, PO Box 700,
Mauston, Wisconsin 53948.
2002 Plenum Publishing Corporation