Conflicts among $$\varvec{N}$$ N armed groups: scenarios from a new descriptive model

Conflicts among $$\varvec{N}$$ N armed groups: scenarios from a new descriptive model In this paper, we propose and analyze a new descriptive model of armed conflicts among N groups. The model is composed of $$N^2$$ N 2 ordinary differential equations, with $$3(N^2+N)$$ 3 ( N 2 + N ) constant parameters that describe military characteristics and recruitment policies, ranging from pure defensivism to pure fanaticism. The results are only preliminary, but point out interesting (though not very surprising) properties: periodic coexistence is possible, and multiple attractors can exist; governmental groups cannot go extinct if they are highly defensivist, and rebels cannot be eradicated if they are highly fanatic. Shocks due to interventions of short duration of an external army can stabilize/destabilize the system and/or eradicate some group, and the same holds true for small structural changes. Other more subtle questions concerning, for example, the existence of chaotic regimes and the systematic evaluation of the role of strategic factors like power, intelligence, and fanaticism, remain open and require further research. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Nonlinear Dynamics Springer Journals

Conflicts among $$\varvec{N}$$ N armed groups: scenarios from a new descriptive model

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer_journal/conflicts-among-varvec-n-n-armed-groups-scenarios-from-a-new-L3fETY702H
Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Subject
Engineering; Vibration, Dynamical Systems, Control; Classical Mechanics; Mechanical Engineering; Automotive Engineering
ISSN
0924-090X
eISSN
1573-269X
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11071-017-3446-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this paper, we propose and analyze a new descriptive model of armed conflicts among N groups. The model is composed of $$N^2$$ N 2 ordinary differential equations, with $$3(N^2+N)$$ 3 ( N 2 + N ) constant parameters that describe military characteristics and recruitment policies, ranging from pure defensivism to pure fanaticism. The results are only preliminary, but point out interesting (though not very surprising) properties: periodic coexistence is possible, and multiple attractors can exist; governmental groups cannot go extinct if they are highly defensivist, and rebels cannot be eradicated if they are highly fanatic. Shocks due to interventions of short duration of an external army can stabilize/destabilize the system and/or eradicate some group, and the same holds true for small structural changes. Other more subtle questions concerning, for example, the existence of chaotic regimes and the systematic evaluation of the role of strategic factors like power, intelligence, and fanaticism, remain open and require further research.

Journal

Nonlinear DynamicsSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 9, 2017

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create lists to
organize your research

Export lists, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off