Conditional power as an aid in making interim decisions in observational studies

Conditional power as an aid in making interim decisions in observational studies Conditional power combines the findings of a partially completed study with assumptions about the future. The goal is to estimate the probability that the eventual study result will be incompatible with a criterion value, such as acceptable risk or the null hypothesis. Some history and motivation for conditional power calculations are provided, with examples illus- trating the application to drug safety studies. This is an expository article suggesting that conditional power, which is well- established in clinical trials research, also has application to observational studies. The utility may be highest in regulatory settings where resources are limited and interim decisions have to be made accurately in the shortest possible time. Keywords Unplanned termination  Curtailed testing  Stochastic curtailment  Study management Background expected survival rate in the control group. In March 2009, it became clear that the planned interim anal- The Coronary Drug Project (CDP) compared therapies to ysis of [overall survival] would not be feasible within reduce the risk of death, cardiac death and nonfatal a reasonable timeline; therefore, the [independent myocardial infarction through a randomized trial in 8341 data monitoring committee] recommended changing high-risk patients recruited from 1966 to 1969 and fol- the primary end point. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png European Journal of Epidemiology Springer Journals

Conditional power as an aid in making interim decisions in observational studies

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Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature
Subject
Medicine & Public Health; Epidemiology; Public Health; Infectious Diseases; Cardiology; Oncology
ISSN
0393-2990
eISSN
1573-7284
D.O.I.
10.1007/s10654-018-0413-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Conditional power combines the findings of a partially completed study with assumptions about the future. The goal is to estimate the probability that the eventual study result will be incompatible with a criterion value, such as acceptable risk or the null hypothesis. Some history and motivation for conditional power calculations are provided, with examples illus- trating the application to drug safety studies. This is an expository article suggesting that conditional power, which is well- established in clinical trials research, also has application to observational studies. The utility may be highest in regulatory settings where resources are limited and interim decisions have to be made accurately in the shortest possible time. Keywords Unplanned termination  Curtailed testing  Stochastic curtailment  Study management Background expected survival rate in the control group. In March 2009, it became clear that the planned interim anal- The Coronary Drug Project (CDP) compared therapies to ysis of [overall survival] would not be feasible within reduce the risk of death, cardiac death and nonfatal a reasonable timeline; therefore, the [independent myocardial infarction through a randomized trial in 8341 data monitoring committee] recommended changing high-risk patients recruited from 1966 to 1969 and fol- the primary end point.

Journal

European Journal of EpidemiologySpringer Journals

Published: May 28, 2018

References

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