Can historical returns-earnings relations predict price responses to earnings news?

Can historical returns-earnings relations predict price responses to earnings news? The main purpose of this study is to examine the usefulness of pooled and firm-specific returns-earnings models in predicting price responses to future earnings news. The question addresses whether earnings response coefficients (ERCs) (i.e., slope coefficients obtained from regressions of market-adjusted returns on earnings surprises) are helpful in predicting price responses to future earnings surprises. In other words, are historical returns-earnings relations (as captured by ERCs) useful in predicting future returns-earnings relations? Surprisingly, we find that ERCs from firm-specific regressions provide less accurate predictions of price responses to future earnings surprises than ERCs from pooled regressions. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from actual-firm-specific regressions are no more accurate than those from pseudo-firm-specific regressions. This is despite the fact that our pseudo firms are created through random draws of returns-earnings data. Therefore, they have no economic characteristics that extend beyond the period over which the coefficients are estimated. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

Can historical returns-earnings relations predict price responses to earnings news?

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Subject
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
ISSN
0924-865X
eISSN
1573-7179
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11156-010-0194-z
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to examine the usefulness of pooled and firm-specific returns-earnings models in predicting price responses to future earnings news. The question addresses whether earnings response coefficients (ERCs) (i.e., slope coefficients obtained from regressions of market-adjusted returns on earnings surprises) are helpful in predicting price responses to future earnings surprises. In other words, are historical returns-earnings relations (as captured by ERCs) useful in predicting future returns-earnings relations? Surprisingly, we find that ERCs from firm-specific regressions provide less accurate predictions of price responses to future earnings surprises than ERCs from pooled regressions. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from actual-firm-specific regressions are no more accurate than those from pseudo-firm-specific regressions. This is despite the fact that our pseudo firms are created through random draws of returns-earnings data. Therefore, they have no economic characteristics that extend beyond the period over which the coefficients are estimated.

Journal

Review of Quantitative Finance and AccountingSpringer Journals

Published: Aug 14, 2010

References

  • Measurement error and nonlinearity in the earnings-returns relation
    Beneish, M; Harvey, C
  • The valuation of the foreign income of US multinational firms: a growth opportunities perspective
    Bodnar, G; Weintrop, J
  • The effect of earnings quality on country-level institutions on the value relevance of earnings
    Cahan, S; Emanuel, D; Sun, J

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