Can an Outcome’s Cumulative Probabilities Exceed 1? Only in Vegas!

Can an Outcome’s Cumulative Probabilities Exceed 1? Only in Vegas! Atl Econ J (2018) 46:135–136 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-017-9562-6 ANTHOLOGY Can an Outcome’s Cumulative Probabilities Exceed 1? Only in Vegas! 1 1 1 Ladd Kochman & David Bray & Ken Gilliam Published online: 28 December 2017 International Atlantic Economic Society 2017 JEL E47 Z20 A probability distribution refers to the way in which the total probability of 1 (or 100%) is distributed over various possible outcomes. A discrete probability distribution is characterized by outcomes that are countable and limited. The most common applica- tions include flipping a coin and rolling dice. Even bookmakers’ odds, when converted to probabilities, can serve as an example. According to the opening odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SportsBook, the odds of the Chicago Cubs winning the 2017 World Series were 3-to-1 (www.espn.com). By dividing 1 by (3 + 1), we can derive a probability of 0.25 (25%) that the Cubs will win out. Other teams with relatively short odds were the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Washington Nationals and the Boston Red Sox (all 10-to-1 or 0.0909). The lowest-rated clubs were the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Minnesota Twins, the Los Angeles Angels, the Atlanta Braves, the Oakland Athletics, the San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Atlantic Economic Journal Springer Journals

Can an Outcome’s Cumulative Probabilities Exceed 1? Only in Vegas!

Loading next page...
 
/lp/springer_journal/can-an-outcome-s-cumulative-probabilities-exceed-1-only-in-vegas-gvLWgdZu27
Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 by International Atlantic Economic Society
Subject
Economics; Economics, general; Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics; Microeconomics; International Economics; Public Finance
ISSN
0197-4254
eISSN
1573-9678
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11293-017-9562-6
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Atl Econ J (2018) 46:135–136 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-017-9562-6 ANTHOLOGY Can an Outcome’s Cumulative Probabilities Exceed 1? Only in Vegas! 1 1 1 Ladd Kochman & David Bray & Ken Gilliam Published online: 28 December 2017 International Atlantic Economic Society 2017 JEL E47 Z20 A probability distribution refers to the way in which the total probability of 1 (or 100%) is distributed over various possible outcomes. A discrete probability distribution is characterized by outcomes that are countable and limited. The most common applica- tions include flipping a coin and rolling dice. Even bookmakers’ odds, when converted to probabilities, can serve as an example. According to the opening odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SportsBook, the odds of the Chicago Cubs winning the 2017 World Series were 3-to-1 (www.espn.com). By dividing 1 by (3 + 1), we can derive a probability of 0.25 (25%) that the Cubs will win out. Other teams with relatively short odds were the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Washington Nationals and the Boston Red Sox (all 10-to-1 or 0.0909). The lowest-rated clubs were the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Minnesota Twins, the Los Angeles Angels, the Atlanta Braves, the Oakland Athletics, the San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds

Journal

Atlantic Economic JournalSpringer Journals

Published: Dec 28, 2017

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve Freelancer

DeepDyve Pro

Price
FREE
$49/month

$360/year
Save searches from Google Scholar, PubMed
Create lists to organize your research
Export lists, citations
Access to DeepDyve database
Abstract access only
Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles
Print
20 pages/month
PDF Discount
20% off