Biases in multi-year management financial forecasts: Evidence from private venture-backed U.S. companies

Biases in multi-year management financial forecasts: Evidence from private venture-backed U.S.... This paper studies the properties and determinants of managers’ multi-year financial forecasts. Using one- to five-year-ahead forecasts reported by private venture-backed firms, we ask whether, by how much, and why biases in managers’ forecasts of revenues, expenses and profits depend on the forecasting horizon and the verifiability of assets. We find that profitability forecasts contain a strategic component, in that [1] one-year-ahead revenue (expense) forecasts are slightly and asymmetrically pessimistic (optimistic), while five-year-ahead forecasts are hugely and asymmetrically optimistic (pessimistic); and [2] biases in revenue and expense forecasts are larger, the harder to verify or more intangible-intensive are firms’ assets. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Accounting Studies Springer Journals

Biases in multi-year management financial forecasts: Evidence from private venture-backed U.S. companies

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Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 by Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Subject
Business and Management; Accounting/Auditing; Corporate Finance; Public Finance
ISSN
1380-6653
eISSN
1573-7136
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11142-007-9033-4
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper studies the properties and determinants of managers’ multi-year financial forecasts. Using one- to five-year-ahead forecasts reported by private venture-backed firms, we ask whether, by how much, and why biases in managers’ forecasts of revenues, expenses and profits depend on the forecasting horizon and the verifiability of assets. We find that profitability forecasts contain a strategic component, in that [1] one-year-ahead revenue (expense) forecasts are slightly and asymmetrically pessimistic (optimistic), while five-year-ahead forecasts are hugely and asymmetrically optimistic (pessimistic); and [2] biases in revenue and expense forecasts are larger, the harder to verify or more intangible-intensive are firms’ assets.

Journal

Review of Accounting StudiesSpringer Journals

Published: Mar 28, 2007

References

  • Venture-backed private equity valuation and financial statement information
    Armstrong, C.; Dávila, A.; Foster, G.

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