Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply, Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances

Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply, Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances This paper identifies sources of asset returns (stock returns and interest rates) and inflation relations. We find that the relation between asset returns and inflation is driven by three types of disturbances to the economy. We interpret them as due to supply disturbances and two types of demand—monetary and fiscal—disturbances. In post-war U.S. data, supply and fiscal disturbances drive a negative stock return-inflation relation, whereas monetary disturbances generate a positive stock return-inflation relation. However, all three types of disturbances generate a negative interest rate-inflation relation. Depending on the interaction of the three types of shocks, we observe different correlations between asset returns and inflation in post- and pre-World War II U.S. data. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

Asset Returns and Inflation in Response to Supply, Monetary, and Fiscal Disturbances

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Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
ISSN
0924-865X
eISSN
1573-7179
D.O.I.
10.1023/A:1027347329918
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper identifies sources of asset returns (stock returns and interest rates) and inflation relations. We find that the relation between asset returns and inflation is driven by three types of disturbances to the economy. We interpret them as due to supply disturbances and two types of demand—monetary and fiscal—disturbances. In post-war U.S. data, supply and fiscal disturbances drive a negative stock return-inflation relation, whereas monetary disturbances generate a positive stock return-inflation relation. However, all three types of disturbances generate a negative interest rate-inflation relation. Depending on the interaction of the three types of shocks, we observe different correlations between asset returns and inflation in post- and pre-World War II U.S. data.

Journal

Review of Quantitative Finance and AccountingSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 4, 2004

References

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