Qual Quant (2011) 45:1539–1550
Application of fuzzy regression on air cargo volume
Tsung-Yu Chou · Gin-Shuh Liang · Tzeu-Chen Han
Published online: 9 June 2010
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
Abstract This paper presented a Fuzzy Regression Forecasting Model (FRFM) to forecast
demand by examining present international air cargo market. Accuracy is one of the most
important concerns when dealing with forecasts. However, there is one problem that is often
overlooked. That is, an accurate forecast model for one does not necessarily suit the other.
This is mainly due to individual’s different perceptions toward their socioeconomic environ-
ment as well as their competitiveness when evaluating risk. Therefore people make divergent
judgments toward various scenarios. Yet even when faced with the same challenge, distinc-
tive responses are generated due to individual evaluations in their strengths and weaknesses.
How to resolve these uncertainties and indefiniteness while accommodating individuality is
the main purpose of constructing this FRFM. When forecasting air cargo volumes, uncer-
tainty factors often cause deviation in estimations derived from traditional linear regression
analysis. Aiming to enhance forecast accuracy by minimizing deviations, fuzzy regression
analysis and linear regression analysis were integrated to reduce the residual resulted from
these uncertain factors. The authors applied α-cut and Index of Optimism λ to achieve a more
ﬂexible and persuasive future volume forecast.
Keywords Air cargo · Freight forecasting · Fuzzy linear regression · Index of optimism
The idea of Just-in-Time (JIT) was a breakthrough in operational management concept.
This idea allowed producers to minimize stock during manufacturing processes in order to
achieve the ﬁnal target of zero stocks. In addition, the concept of Build-to-Order (BTO) has
also modiﬁed producer manufacturing habits. Traditional manufacturing process in a single
site has changed to assembling and processing in different international ports. Global logistics
T.-Y. Chou (
) · G.-S. Liang · T.-C. Han
Department of Distribution Management, National Chin-Yi University of Technology 35, Lane 215,
Section 1, Chung-Shan Road, Taiping City, Taichung County, 411 Taiwan, ROC