Russian Physics Journal, Vol. 61, No. 2, June, 2018 (Russian Original No. 2, February, 2018)
ANALYSIS OF PROBABILISTIC ORBITAL EVOLUTION OF THE
ASTEROIDS 2011 CQ1 AND 2011 MD
G. E. Sambarov and O. M. Syusina UDC 521.1; 521.35
The orbital evolution of asteroids 2011 CQ1 and 2011 MD approaching to the Earth is investigated. The
influence of perturbing forces on the accuracy of constructing the regions of their possible motions is
Keywords: Asteroids, dynamics, perturbation structure, Earth’s compression.
The important point in the study of orbital evolution of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and estimation of the
probability of their collision with the planet is the choice of the optimal model of perturbing accelerations influencing
the examined object. The model of forces used in differential equations of (NEAs) motion can involve different sets of
perturbing accelerations depending on the problems formulated by the researcher, type of the object orbits, and possible
approaches to the Earth or other planets. Application of an incomplete model can lead to sufficiently large systematic
errors and, as a consequence, to larger deviations of the nominal orbits of the examined objects and unreliable
confidence regions of their motion. This is especially inadmissible in the study of close asteroid approaches to and
possible collisions with the Earth. In the present work, the influence of the small perturbing acceleration caused by the
Earth compression is investigated on examples of the AAE 2011CQ1 and 2011MD on the accuracy of representation of
their motion during 2000–2100.
1. DATA ON THE ASTEROIDS 2011 CQ1 AND 2011 MD
The asteroid 2011MD was discovered on June 22, 2011 in the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research
(LINEAR) Laboratory. By December 2016, the database of the Minor Planet Centre included 1555 observations of this
object during about three months. Despite the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) equal to 0.000351 au, the
object does not belong to the class of potentially dangerous asteroids owing to its low absolute magnitude (H = 28.0).
According to a more recent data, the albedo of the asteroid 2011MD is 0.3, and its diameter is about 6 m.
The asteroid 2011 CQ1 was discovered on February 4, 2011 by R. A. Kowalski within the framework of the
Project Catalina Sky Survey. By December 2016, the database of the Minor Planets Center included 35 observations of
the object within one day. The orbit eccentricity (e = 0.205) allowed the asteroid to cross the Mars orbit (closer to the
aphelion) in the projection onto the ecliptic plane and to approach to the Earth orbit in the perihelion. Belonging to a flat
subsystem (i = 5.243°) allows the object to be approached to the above-indicated planets. The object does not belong to
the class of potentially dangerous asteroids owing to its low absolute magnitude (H = 32.1). Figure 1 shows the
projections of orbits of the asteroids 2011 MD and 2011 CQ1 and of orbits of Mercury (1), Venus (2), Earth (3), and
Mars (4). The segments of the observed asteroid orbits are indicated by closed circles.
National Research Tomsk State University, Tomsk, Russia, e-mail: email@example.com. Translated fro
Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii, Fizika, No. 2, pp. 149–153, February, 2018. Original article submitted Jul
1064-8887/18/6102-0373 2018 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC