An Austrian view of expectations and business cycles

An Austrian view of expectations and business cycles Austrian economists have contributed several important concepts to business cycle theory including: inter-temporal coordination of production and consumption, heterogeneous specificity of capital, non-neutrality of money, and the capital structure of production. Noticeably lacking, however, is a clear theory of expectations. Recent Austrian responses to rational expectations critiques—such as positing a prisoner’s dilemma, heterogeneous entrepreneurs, and adverse selection—try to fill this gap. But much work remains to be done developing an Austrian theory of expectations, one where they are endogenous to the market process and market institutions. This paper explores how people adapt their expectations to changing market phenomena based upon their perceived costs and benefits of doing so. It then applies endogenous expectations to the 2008 financial crisis. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Review of Austrian Economics Springer Journals

An Austrian view of expectations and business cycles

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Publisher
Springer US
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 by Springer Science+Business Media New York
Subject
Economics / Management Science; Public Finance & Economics; Political Science, general; Methodology and the History of Economic Thought
ISSN
0889-3047
eISSN
1573-7128
D.O.I.
10.1007/s11138-013-0250-8
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Austrian economists have contributed several important concepts to business cycle theory including: inter-temporal coordination of production and consumption, heterogeneous specificity of capital, non-neutrality of money, and the capital structure of production. Noticeably lacking, however, is a clear theory of expectations. Recent Austrian responses to rational expectations critiques—such as positing a prisoner’s dilemma, heterogeneous entrepreneurs, and adverse selection—try to fill this gap. But much work remains to be done developing an Austrian theory of expectations, one where they are endogenous to the market process and market institutions. This paper explores how people adapt their expectations to changing market phenomena based upon their perceived costs and benefits of doing so. It then applies endogenous expectations to the 2008 financial crisis.

Journal

The Review of Austrian EconomicsSpringer Journals

Published: Jan 3, 2014

References

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