An Assessment of Empirical Model Performance When Financial Market Transactions are Observed at Different Data Frequencies: An Application to East Asian Exchange Rates

An Assessment of Empirical Model Performance When Financial Market Transactions are Observed at... This paper compares the performance of alternative models of east Asian exchange rates at different data frequencies. Selected models employ different specifications of the conditional variance and the conditional error distribution. Conditional variance specifications include: homoscedasticity, GARCH, LGARCH, and EGARCH. Conditional error distribution specifications include normal and Student t. The best exchange rate model specification is clearly conditional on data frequency. Higher frequency (daily, weekly) data commonly exhibit characteristics that demand more sophisticated estimation methods than analysts commonly employ. These characteristics generally vanish at lower (monthly, quarterly) frequencies. Overall we find significant benefit from accommodating heteroscedasticity and leptokurtic properties of the conditional distribution as data frequency increases. Using a likelihood ratio test we compare the relative gain from addressing heteroscedasticity (through use of GARCH models) versus accommodation of leptokurtosis. This comparison suggests that the gains from correct specification of the conditional distribution dominate those obtained from addressing problems of heteroscedasticity. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Springer Journals

An Assessment of Empirical Model Performance When Financial Market Transactions are Observed at Different Data Frequencies: An Application to East Asian Exchange Rates

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Publisher
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Subject
Finance; Corporate Finance; Accounting/Auditing; Econometrics; Operation Research/Decision Theory
ISSN
0924-865X
eISSN
1573-7179
D.O.I.
10.1023/A:1020670711241
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper compares the performance of alternative models of east Asian exchange rates at different data frequencies. Selected models employ different specifications of the conditional variance and the conditional error distribution. Conditional variance specifications include: homoscedasticity, GARCH, LGARCH, and EGARCH. Conditional error distribution specifications include normal and Student t. The best exchange rate model specification is clearly conditional on data frequency. Higher frequency (daily, weekly) data commonly exhibit characteristics that demand more sophisticated estimation methods than analysts commonly employ. These characteristics generally vanish at lower (monthly, quarterly) frequencies. Overall we find significant benefit from accommodating heteroscedasticity and leptokurtic properties of the conditional distribution as data frequency increases. Using a likelihood ratio test we compare the relative gain from addressing heteroscedasticity (through use of GARCH models) versus accommodation of leptokurtosis. This comparison suggests that the gains from correct specification of the conditional distribution dominate those obtained from addressing problems of heteroscedasticity.

Journal

Review of Quantitative Finance and AccountingSpringer Journals

Published: Oct 13, 2004

References

  • Fractionally Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
    Baillie, R. T.; Bollerslev, T.; Mikkelsen, H. O.

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