Physical Oceanography, Vol. 17, No. 3, 2007
MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF MARINE SYSTEMS
ADAPTIVE BALANCE OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES
I. E. Timchenko, E. M. Igumnova, and S. M. Solodova
We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the
method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the
Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of
the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop
an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is
one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in
the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the
number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social haz-
ards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify
the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, deve-
lopment of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present
the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible sce-
narios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society.
The sustainable development of the human society involves a broad range of problems of harmonization of
the interaction of mankind with the environment. The attention of scientists and politicians is now focused on
the problem of global warming of the Earth caused by the increasing amount of greenhouse gases appearing in
the atmosphere as a result of the development of power engineering and transport. Possible consequences of this
phenomenon for the climate, world economy, and the ecological state of the environment are extensively studied.
In this connection, the so-called GAIA-theory  based on the hypotheses of adaptation of global dynamical pro-
cesses running in the living and nonliving nature is of especial interest. The development of this theory can be
traced back to the works by V.
Vernadskii  who introduced the notion of “noosphere” and stated that the
noosphere is a complex system including the land and marine flora and fauna, the geological structure of the up-
per layers of the dry land and the bottom of seas and oceans, and the chemical composition of the atmosphere.
This is a single system in the state of dynamical balance with various external forces and, first of all, with solar
In the opinion of the researchers supporting the GAIA-theory, the global atmosphere–ocean–land system in-
habited by living organisms is capable of adaptation to changes in the external conditions as a result of self-re-
gulation guaranteed by the presence of living organisms. There are numerous models aimed at the integral esti-
mation of the global processes of self-regulation . Some of these models are based on the application of the
Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No.
62–80, May–June, 2007. Original article submitted October 11, 2005;
revision submitted December 14, 2005.
0928-5105/07/1703–0173 © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 173